Last night was US election night. Today it seemed all around me people were complaining of a bad dream .. only to realise they really had woken up .. and so it couldn’t be. Or perhaps for you it was a living nightmare instead!
But seriously how many times has that happened to you?
Did it feel like Brexit morning to you all over again (at least for those of us here in Europe) ?
Fortunately in the overwhelming majority of cases our worst fears are not realised at all. You can recognise this by remembering the way you might feel today. It’s rare, isn’t it?
And most of the time what happens anyway when the dust settles? You realise your ‘worst fears’ are only that, F-E-A-R: False Evidence Appearing Real : like the anxiety that the world has changed incredibly for the worst after one event, like an election. The reality is thankfully, far rosier.
There is little doubt amongst veteran observers that this election has confirmed we are living in a very different political climate in 2016 then perhaps many of us realised. Trump’s election victory is an unmistakable rejection and lack of faith in the political establishment and perhaps in the political correctness of the ruling class.
Observers of various upcoming european-nation elections and Renzi referendum supporters, should sit-up and take notice..
Does Trump’s election mean the end of our liberal values of acceptance, moderation, respect for the law and all races and colours and creeds? No, of course not.
Does it mean a defeat for the highest leadership aspirations for women? No! Only that one very public American glass-ceiling remains unbroken, whilst across the Atlantic and the world women already occupy heads of nation or State and the highest office in several countries.
Does it mean that political campaigns can stoop to the lowest levels of human nature and ignore economic needs and real policy issues? Yes it does!
Does it mean that leadership and potential leadership that represents more of the same have not been listening to the people? Yes it does.
There have clearly been victims of major industrial practices like outsourcing manufacturing jobs to low-cost-of-labour countries (for years), and victims of real or perceived marginalisation of potentially large swathes of populations of the US and the UK, which has contributed to two of the most remarkable political results so far in 2016.
Ironically this year has been an incredible year for upsets in sport in major tournaments all over the globe.
However if nothing else, today marks an important time to reflect upon and voice our opinion and concerns for shared values such as inclusion, acceptance and the value of diversity, respect for the law and for the people of all nations. One man will not dictate which values are worthy of our support – whether we feel we could become affected by his potential future policies, or not.
After a slight dip in equity markets and the USD, I expect the markets will normalise again and realise .. although there is increased uncertainty, many of the market forces that existed pre-election, will continue post-election, and bigger threats to world economic growth, stability and security exist in the world.
Nonetheless this uncertainty is likely to lead to the following short to medium term trends ;
*Gold being an increased part of institutional investing and in more portfolios (as a safety measure)
*less money allocated to riskier investments
*healthcare and biotech companies in the US could benefit from Trump policies
*a bigger spending Trump government can create employment boost for jobs in infrastructure-and construction materials
*trading companies will be nervous to see new trade deal outcomes
*a risk to increasing inflation as a result of that higher spending anticipated.
The above views represent those of the author, Daniel Shillito only, and not of Spectrum IFA Group or any other institution.
For further information and advice, contact Daniel.